A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
